Losing Hearts and Minds or The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series

Losing Hearts and Minds: Public Diplomacy and Strategic Influence in the Age of Terror

Author: Carnes Lord

There is a broad consensus among informed observers both inside and outside the Beltway that American public diplomacy leaves much to be desired. Recent studies describe ineffectiveness, inadequate resources, and a general lack of direction. Further complicating this situation, there is no real consensus among critics on what must be done to fix current problems. Moreover, the ills afflicting public diplomacy are poorly understood. Losing Hearts and Minds? situates these problems within the complex environment of U.S. government bureaucracy, and relates them to other instruments of national power, particularly diplomatic activities and military force. This book prompts debate by analyzing obstacles to effective public diplomacy, and offers a comprehensive vision of this critical dimension of statecraft, which without improvements will ill serve the nation in its ongoing efforts to counter the global threat of terror.

Foreign Affairs

Lord, national security adviser to the vice president during theGeorge H. W. Bush administration, weighs in on the vital debate over public diplomacy, offering both analysis of and prescriptions for some of the most complex issues facing U.S. foreign policy today. Lord believes that public diplomacy is a matter of strategic importance and that bureaucratic disarray, intellectual confusion, and political squeamishness are preventing the United States from performing this task successfully. Whereas many writers on the subject focus exclusively on the State Department, Lord never forgets that both the Pentagon and the intelligence agencies have a history of engagement in the field as well. The Bush administration has not, argues Lord, handled public diplomacy particularly well, and neither did the Clinton administration. He makes a strong case that a broad review of public diplomacy is urgently needed, and his holistic approach and unblinking focus on the relationship of public diplomacy to U.S. grand strategy will greatly benefit such a review. Much of what Lord says will be controversial, but a healthy dose of controversy may help stimulate the wide-ranging debate this important subject urgently needs.

Table of Contents:

Ch. 1	Introduction	1
Ch. 2	Strategic influence and soft power	15
Ch. 3	Public diplomacy and psychological-political warfare	27
Ch. 4	Strategic influence in the age of terror	37
Ch. 5	Problems of legitimacy : the cultural context	57
Ch. 6	Problems of organization : the bureaucratic context	65
Ch. 7	The state department : back to the future?	73
Ch. 8	International broadcasting : who's in charge?	83
Ch. 9	The defense department : into the act?	93
Ch. 10	The White House : key to the game?	103
Ch. 11	Strategic influence and the future	111

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The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series

Author: Terence C Mills

Terence Mills' best-selling graduate textbook provides detailed coverage of the latest research techniques and findings relating to the empirical analysis of financial markets. In its previous editions it has become required reading for many graduate courses on the econometrics of financial modelling. The third edition, co-authored with Raphael Markellos, contains a wealth of new material reflecting the developments of the last decade. Particular attention is paid to the wide range of nonlinear models that are used to analyse financial data observed at high frequencies and to the long memory characteristics found in financial time series. The central material on unit root processes and the modelling of trends and structural breaks has been substantially expanded into a chapter of its own. There is also an extended discussion of the treatment of volatility, accompanied by a new chapter on nonlinearity and its testing.